In a new weekly update for pv magazineOPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides a brief overview of the major price trends in the global PV industry.
Trading activity in the global polysilicon market remained subdued this week. OPIS has learned that a limited number of spot transactions are currently being negotiated, which could result in a marginal upward adjustment in prices, according to industry sources.
According to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report published on February 10, the Global Polysilicon Marker (GPM) – the OPIS benchmark for polysilicon produced outside China – was estimated at $18,942/kg, or $0.040/W, unchanged from the previous week.
This followed a 1.14% increase the previous week, driven by reports of one manufacturer implementing a modest price increase, although higher levels were not widely accepted by downstream buyers.
Market participants indicated that the manufacturer’s pricing decision reflects “optimistic” expectations regarding the outcome of the U.S. Section 232 national security investigation into polysilicon and its derivatives. In particular, the market expects certain tariff waivers to be granted to long-term partners and allied countries, supporting a more positive outlook for non-US polysilicon.
Despite this optimism, market observers warn that the potential outcomes of Section 232 pose a double-edged sword for non-US polysilicon producers. While volumes eligible for duty-free quotas could benefit from higher prices and improved demand, production capacity outside these exemptions could face significant both pricing and offtake pressures.
On the supply side, a new polysilicon plant in Oman with a nominal annual capacity of 100,000 tonnes (MT) came into operation last week. Industry participants noted that while the start-up of this Oman facility could have some impact on the global polysilicon market, the impact is likely to be limited in the near term. An insider noted that it typically takes at least three months from initial production for product quality to stabilize, and that in addition to quality, a range of operational, logistical and commercial factors between buyers and sellers must be addressed, requiring careful coordination on a case-by-case basis.
Similarly, trading activity in China’s polysilicon market was largely stagnant this week. Market participants attributed the lack of transactions primarily to uncertainty about future market conditions, as well as unclear business metrics among downstream manufacturers, which have significantly reduced buyers’ urgency to purchase polysilicon.
The China Mono Premium – OPIS’ rating for mono-grade polysilicon used in the production of n-type ingots – remained unchanged week on week at CNY50.917 ($7.38)/kg, or CNY0.107/W.
Polysilicon suppliers – especially leading producers – continue to prioritize price stability, a stance that has further dampened buying interest to some extent, according to one market participant.
Industry sources also noted that while some manufacturers have marginally increased production following adjustments to production lines, shutdowns and production cuts at major factories have led to a significant reduction in overall market supply. This contraction in supply is one of the main factors supporting the efforts of major producers to maintain prices.
Data from the Silicon Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMIA) shows that China’s polysilicon production totaled about 102,000 tons in January, down 8.3% month-on-month. CNMIA expects production to fall to around 85,000 tonnes in February, while demand from wafer producers is estimated at around 80,000 tonnes, indicating that the pace of inventory accumulation is slowing.
Another market participant said polysilicon prices are expected to remain at low levels below CNY55/kg for an extended period, possibly through 2026. The source added that reductions in operating rates do not equate to a meaningful exit of excess capacity, and that industry consolidation remains necessary, although the trajectory and timing for such consolidation remains uncertain.
OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/NGL, coal, metals and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmentally friendly feedstocks. It acquired price data assets from Singapore Solar Exchange in 2022 and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report.
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