The Netherlands has recorded more hours of negative energy prices between January 1 and August 17 than in all of 2023. The Dutch research agency Stratergy has noted a clear link between expected solar and wind energy and negative hourly prices in the coming day. market.
Dutch EPEX SPOT Day-ahead market registered 347 hours of negative prices between January 1 and August 14, according to figures from the Dutch consultancy Stratergy. In 2023, the total number of hours of negative prices was 316 for the full year.
“The expectation is that the total this year will be between 450 and 550 hours, depending on further developments in gas prices,” says analyst Jan Willem Zwang. pv magazine. “There is a clear connection between the expected solar and wind energy for the next day and the negative hourly prices on the day-ahead market. Negative prices are most common during the day in the summer months, especially on weekends, public holidays and during holiday periods when expected consumption is lower. Furthermore, it is clear that slightly stronger winds during the nights and the colder months directly contribute to negative hourly prices.
Zwang said growth in solar and wind capacity is expected to significantly increase the number of hours with negative prices in the coming years. He predicts a substantial increase in negative price hours as renewable energy capacity increases.
“By 2025 we will probably see between 550 and 750 hours,” he added, noting that these results depend on the development of gas prices and the bidding strategies of renewable energy producers. “By 2026 between 800 and 1,200 hours. For 2027, 2028 and 2029, forecasts vary between 1,000 and 1,500 hours.”
Producers are increasingly expected to avoid selling on a day-ahead basis when prices are negative, especially for new products SDE++ scheme. Zwang added that congestion and capacity-restricting contracts could lead to fewer and less severe negative day-ahead prices, even though more hours of negative prices have been observed this year.
“For example, last year July had 65 hours of negative prices at an average price of -€51.67 ($56.75)/MWh, while this year 81 hours of negative prices were recorded at an average price of -€22.76/ MWh,” he says. said.
In 2020, the average negative price was –€9.57/MWh, but in the following two years it was -€14.82/MWh and -€34.61/MWh respectively. In 2023 this amounted to €26.06/MWh and so far this year it was €22.26/MWh.
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