In a new weekly update for pv magazineOPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides a brief overview of the major price trends in the global PV industry.
According to the OPIS Solar Weekly Report released on October 21, The Chinese Module Marker (CMM), OPIS’s benchmark for TOPCon modules above 600W, rose 1.14% to $0.089/W Free-On-Board (FOB) China, with indications between $0.086-0.093/W.
Forward curve indications strengthened this week, with H2 2026 freight loads rising to $0.091/W for both the third and fourth quarters, while H1 2026 held steady at $0.089/W for the first quarter and $0.090/W for the second quarter.
Q4 2025 load rose 1.14% to $0.088/W, tracking firmer spot indications, with higher market prices ranging from $0.086-0.091/W.
The polysilicon platform company – jointly established by several leading manufacturers to absorb excess capacity – is nearing completion, according to recent industry discussions. Market sources say this development suggests a step forward in the long-awaited consolidation plan for the sector, although its size and timeline still await official confirmation.
Downstream solar producers noted that the consolidation talks have had limited immediate impact on the cell and module markets as downstream customers have not yet shown strong price acceptance.
A module manufacturer source said if the polysilicon consolidation plan is implemented, it could alleviate the supply-demand imbalance in the solar value chain, adding that major downstream manufacturers are already operating under production quotas, while new capacity approvals are becoming increasingly difficult to obtain.
But even if this is implemented, one market analyst expects that the short-term effect will likely be limited to sentiment support for the downstream market, as the initial phase of consolidation is expected to be small. Still, the analyst remains skeptical about the plan’s implementation, citing several previous delays.
Meanwhile, recent prices in Chinese tender markets remained above China’s Photovoltaic Industry Association’s (CPIA) N-type cost guideline of CNY0.701 ($0.098)/W. Henan’s tender for N-type 635W modules averaged CNY 0.711/W (~$0.092/W FOB equivalent without VAT), while a 130 MW state tender in Shanxi by Jiaokong Technology saw average bids between CNY 0.715/W and CNY 0.719/W.
In the US, the spot price for TOPCon modules over 600W DDP US remained at $0.288/W this week. Rates for Indian cargoes remained at $0.331/W, while rates for Southeast Asia cargoes fell 0.37% to $0.271/W.
US-assembled TOPCon modules with imported cells were quoted at an average price of $0.326/W, stable from week to week. Domestic content modules – Mono PERC panels with US cells – are generally quoted above $0.45/W, although availability remains limited.
The U.S. solar industry continues to await critical developments on multiple policy fronts, including two tariff investigations (AD/CVD and Section 232 on polysilicon) and upcoming foreign entity of concern (FEOC) rules amid a federal government shutdown.
Official information on the timing for the Section 232 investigation remains scarce, with much of the industry resorting to speculation, a major developer source said.
The lingering question is whether the federal government will specifically target Chinese polysilicon producers or impose measures that impact the broader solar industry. However, the source noted that the standoff in DC could delay the investigation’s conclusion until 2026.
Meanwhile, a developer source suggested that the AD/CVD study could ultimately have more ramifications than the changes to IRA tax credits over the summer, as it could threaten a cell shortage in the US. Combined with new FEOC guidance, the study could mean price increases in 2026, as the source does not expect many facilities to be able to comply with FEOC “material assistance” provisions.
OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/NGL, coal, metals and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmentally friendly feedstocks. It acquired assets with pricing data from Singapore Solar Exchange in 2022 and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the author pv magazine.
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