In a new weekly update for PV -MagazineOpis, a Dow Jones company, offers a quick look at the most important trends in the global PV industry.
The China Mono Premium-De Price Assessment of OPIS for Polysilicon of Mono-Quality that was specifically used in N-Type Ingot production on the Domestic Market of China-staying Stable this week on CNY 44,750 ($6.23)/KG or CNY 0.094/W, according to the OPIS Solar Weekly report released on 19 August.
After a rally of 31% for five consecutive weeks under the government guidance since the beginning of July, the prices of Polysilicon have now been stabilized for two weeks.
Industry insiders attribute the stabilization to prices that reach levels that ensure sustainable operation for certain manufacturers. Moreover, the prevailing on-demand purchasing model used by most wafer producers, in combination with the rising monthly production in the past two months, has an upward price momentum.
The monthly polysilicon production of China is expected to increase a third consecutive month. According to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CSIA), the monthly production reached 107,800 tons (MT) in July and in August is projected to 125,000 MT, possibly rising to 140,000 MT in September as plants resume operations and increase the business percentages. With the wafer production that is expected to remain stable, Polysilicon inventories with 50,000 MT could expand above earlier highlights, which further worsens the imbalances of the supply assistants.
Polysilicon inventories continue to be stimulated throughout the industry. According to a market participant, a leading manufacturer already maintains around 130,000 MT inventory, while other producers together have about two months in the total production of China. With the optimal inventory slap that expired mid -July, the focus has shifted or government regulation can effectively curb an excessive production capacity, according to another market observer.
The long -awaited initiative in which large Chinese polysilicon producers and relevant authorities are involved in establishing a platform company for acquiring the production capacity of the surplus and regulating future operational rates, still has to make specific progress public. Insiders from the industry suggest that leading manufacturers carefully approach the matter because the acquisition of capacity means that the corresponding debt is assumed, making the scale too large in relation to the expected return.
Some expect that this initiative can be attacked before the end of the year, which suggests that the current period may be the last chance for manufacturers to expand the company rates without restrictions.
The Global Polysilicon Marker (GPM) – The Opis -Benchmark for Polysilicon produced outside China – remained stable this week at $ 18,550/kg, or $ 0.039/w.
Market conditions remain stable, with most activity concentrated in long -term contracts, supplemented with limited spot orders at favorable prices.
According to a market source, the anti-dumping and compensatory duties of solar products from Indonesia, Laos and India, which were launched on 7 August, have no influence on demand. The impact on electricity suppliers is expected to be limited because Chinese invested facilities in Laos and Indonesia only represent a few gigawatts with electricity capacity, with an annual demand for polysilicon of approximately 10,000 MT.
Looking ahead, oversup pressure will probably intensify with new capacity extensions. A polysilical factory in Oman is planned to start production in Q4, while Highland Materials has announced plans to build a polysilicon facility of 16,000 MT/year in the US, planned construction to start within a year and last 18 to 20 months.
At policy level, South Korea has opposed the US Section 232 research into the import of Polysilicon, warning for disturbances of the supply chain. Hanwha Q cells has proposed a tariff speed quota with which 20,000 MT/year Polysilicon from Germany and Malaysia can enter tax-free, after recent arrests of his American shipments on electric material problems. However, sources remain uncertain whether these exemptions are approved.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are the author, and do not necessarily reflect it by PV -Magazine.
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