In a new weekly update for pv magazineOPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides a brief overview of the major price trends in the global PV industry.
The Global Polysilicon Marker (GPM) – the OPIS benchmark for polysilicon produced outside China – was estimated at $18,728/kg, or $0.039/W, up 2.23% week-on-week, according to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report published on January 13.
The current global polysilicon trading landscape is still characterized by a mix of long-term contracts at relatively stable prices and spot transactions that exhibit a wide price dispersion. This week’s increase in assessed prices was mainly driven by a limited number of expensive spot deals. Market participants said some buyers are willing to pay premiums for global polysilicon with secure and compliant supply chains to mitigate potential risks arising from the U.S. Section 232 investigation and Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) regulations. Sources added that prices for such materials are expected to rise further through 2026 as the scope and enforcement of Section 232 and FEOC rules become clearer.
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As 2026 progresses, the release of Section 232 research results approaches. Industry participants typically expect an announcement by the end of the first quarter, although some expect it as early as late January. Another source noted that the outcome of the investigation may be affected by the Supreme Court’s ruling on the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Although a ruling was initially expected on January 9, the decision has been postponed.
In addition, sources familiar with the matter have confirmed that a new polysilicon production project in the Middle East will begin production in early February. The project adds further uncertainty to global polysilicon supply and pricing. Industry insiders noted that ultimate trade flows and downstream application markets will be key factors shaping global supply-demand dynamics and trade patterns in the polysilicon market.
The China Mono Premium – OPIS’ rating for mono-grade polysilicon used in the production of n-type ingots – remained unchanged week on week at CNY 53.333 ($7.66)/kg or CNY 0.112/W.
At a symposium convened by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), PV manufacturers and industry associations were urged to halt coordinated “anti-disorderly competition” and self-regulation measures related to production, sales and pricing, citing antitrust risks. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) and relevant companies were instructed to review existing practices and submit corrective action plans to SAMR by January 20.
Industry sources said SAMR’s actions could directly lead to the suspension of the polysilicon consolidation plan. The operating entity created last month by leading polysilicon producers to acquire and permanently eliminate inefficient capacity – intended to help restore the balance between supply and demand – could become ineffective. All seven entities summoned by SAMR, including the CPIA and six polysilicon producers, are shareholders of this platform, reinforcing expectations that the plan will no longer play an active role.
After the symposium, sources told OPIS that no polysilicon transactions were observed as the market took a wait-and-see approach ahead of the January 20 filing deadline.
Most market participants expect the recent increase in polysilicon prices to lose momentum if the policy is reinstated. However, industry sources stressed that SAMR’s action is not aimed at dismantling the industry’s self-discipline, but at ensuring that capacity, production and price controls operate within a transparent and legally compliant framework.
Sources broadly agree that a sharp price drop is unlikely as it would lead to serious negative spillovers in the value chain, and China’s price law already prohibits sales below cost. Unless overcapacity is structurally resolved, polysilicon prices are expected to continue to fluctuate around the breakeven point, with averages possibly stabilizing around CNY50/kg in the near term.
More cautious participants noted that recent trades up to CNY56/kg were largely sentiment-driven, supported by anti-disorder competition measures and consolidation expectations. Once these factors fade, and with more than 500,000 tonnes of inventory likely by 2026, prices could retreat to the low CNY30/kg range.
Overall, the policy change is expected to increase price volatility in the short term, with leading producers being the most vulnerable. Without clearer policy signals or effective capacity expansion mechanisms, uncertainty about the sector’s earnings prospects for 2026 is likely to increase.
OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/NGL, coal, metals and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmentally friendly feedstocks. It acquired assets with pricing data from Singapore Solar Exchange in 2022 and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the author pv magazine.
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