Energy experts at Fraunhofer iOSB-AT analyzed loading data of the German distribution network operator Stadtwerke Erfurt (SWE Netz GmbH) in the past 14 years and discovered that higher self-consumption of photovoltaic systems has reduced grilles.
They used publicly available data from the Market Master Data Register and discovered that the amount of energy that is supplied to termination of consumers in this grid area has fallen steadily since 2010, according to Fraunhofer iOSB-AT.
“Our results show a strong correlation between falling grid tax and the continuous expansion of photovoltaïschens in this grid area, especially since 2016,” said Tom Bender, project manager at Fraunhofer iOSB-AT.
However, experts expect a reversal in the coming years. It is expected that the electrification of mobility and heating, together with the expansion of power-to-gas applications, is expected to stimulate a higher demand from the grid.
For medium -term planning, scheduling operators rely on regular predictions of future grid tax, according to the report. Predictions for the current and coming year are particularly important because they form the basis for many energy -related decisions and processes. Inaccurate predictions can be significant economic risks.
According to iOSB AT, the data sources now used make much more precise modeling possible than the previous data model. A simulation for SWE Netz at 15 minutes before the reference year 2024 reduced the error when mapping the grid load from 3.89 GWh to 0.93 GWH, an improvement of 76%. The model accuracy was achieved by including daily and seasonal patterns and long -term trends.
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