Since 1993, the World Energy Outlook (WEO) of the International Energy Agency (IEA) has been an authoritative report on energy statistics and supervising future energy application and developments for offer. However, a study of these reports indicates that even the most progressive Weo scenarios have greatly underestimated the growth of renewable energy technologies, in particular Solar PV.
Since its foundation in 1973, a fundamental goal of the IEA has been the coordination of global answers to energy crises. With the current climate crisis, IEA WEO-Scenarios have become the standard carrier for global energy projections, in particular the newly introduced Netto-Nulemissions by 2050 (NZE) scenario for the first time published in 2021, in the mission of the IEA to help offer safe and sustainable energy. New research from Lut University Investigates projections in the prospects that represent company-as-usual circumstances and the normative, focused on higher levels of sustainability scenarios, in all WOS published from 1993-2022. The study entitled “Freeing up the road to a sustainable future or lagging behind? An ex-post analysis of the world output of the International Energy Agency“Was published in the scientific journal Reviews for sustainable and sustainable energy.
The analysis indicates that, although projections for top-level indicators such as primary and definitive energy demand have largely been accurate, projections for renewable energy in all WOOS have largely underestimated the unprecedented growth in variable renewable electricity, in particular solar PV, confirmed by a finding confirmed by it Auke Hoekstra in 2019. The reported PV capacity of solar energy comes from the Weo NZE scenario of 2022 on 15.5 TW by 2050, corresponding to approximately 27,000 TWH of electricity generation. While these values are within the reach of published 100% literature on renewable energyThey correspond to only 18% of the total demand for primary energy. Moreover, renewable electricity provides only 40% of the primary energy. Conversely, previous research by Lut University has found a global installed solar capacity of 63.4 TW, with solar energy PV -Electricity generation In 69% of the total demand for primary energy and all primary renewable electricity generation at 87%. This fundamental finding was later adopted by the international solar energy PV community and is also followed by the International technological route map for PV.
Image: Lut University
Annual Zonne -PV installations also emphasize the underestimation of the growth of the Zonne -PV as annual additions peak in the NZE scenario of 2022 by 657 GW/year in 2040 before purchasing in 2050. This maximum solar PV installation speed at 593 has been used. In view of the Rapid growth and low costs of solar PVGlobal Markets for PV can be expected to reach 1 two/year between 2025 and 2030 and can reach 3 Tw/year In the course of the 2030s, much further than what the IEA has projected. The question then is, why even lead the most ambitious IEA scenarios to limited renewable electrification and growth of solar PV?
Image: Lut University
A core tenant of transition research for renewable energy system is system -wide electrification. The results indicate that the share of electricity in the final energy demand reaches 49-52%, which is largely in line with the Electrification of heat -requirements and road transport Via battery electric vehicles and the value of smart charging of electric vehicles and their Opportunities for vehicle-to-grid. Integration of heat pumps Is essential for the electrification of the heating and the NZE scenario of 2022 projects that 52% of the building heating demand can be treated by 6.1 TW of heat pumps.
Direct electrification seems to be sufficiently considered in the NZE 2022; However, this is not sufficient for system-wide defossilization, because the remaining 40-50% of the final energy demand for hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels required for heat heat at high temperature, long-distance shipping and raw material in the steel and chemical industry. The demand of fuel and raw materials in the NZE scenario of 2022 seems to be largely treated by bio energy and fossil oil. However, power-to-x routes with the help of electricity-based hydrogen are found to be able to lack fuel requirements E-Fischer-Tropsch fluids And E-monia. e-methanol And e-ammonia will also be fundamental to the industry to be missing chemical Together with e-hydrogen to be missing Primary steel production and support for further Energy-intensive industry.
However, such power-to-x routes require that a cheap renewable electricity input is economically viable. In turn, global energy systems will have a considerable amount of flexibility, because electrolyzers can be operated as excessive renewable electricity, so that the quantities of electricity that must be stored by storage is tempered. The lack of penetration of power-to-x in the normative WEO scenarios can be a factor that limits the growth of solar PV. Although hydrogen production in the 2022 NZE reached around 12,000 TWHH2, LHVOnly 41% is used as an intermediate for Power-to-X conversion and 27% of the hydrogen supply is blue hydrogen based on fossil fuels.
Without flexibility of the demand from the energy system, the balance between variable renewable electricity must come from storage, mainly battery storage. Battery storage capacity is available in the more recent WOS, with the 2022 NZE 3.9 TW projecting in 2050. Previous research by Lut University thinks that by 2050, The total battery capacity can reach more than 13.5 TW. Research into the model used for the WEO suggests that only battery storage is included on Utility scale, but Distributed prosumer -batteries And Vehicle-to-grid connections Can offer cheap distributed storage to help match the demand of renewable electricity with the demand.
All these factors contribute to future energy systems that are able to accommodate high shares of solar PV and wind energy and can support the development of a larger one Power-to-x-economy. The large Zonne -PV cost reductions are largely preferred Solar regionsWhere the majority of demand growth can be expected. In Pakistan a “Zonne -Blitz” takes place and can be a worldwide example of how developing countries can quickly install renewable electricity to decrease their electricity supply and jump over the generally understood carbon intensity associated with economic growth
A similar change can be observed in Ethiopia Because batteries -based electric vehicles are quickly assumed.
If worldwide changes can take place quickly with sufficient social willpower, why should the IEA not be able to inspire worldwide decision makers with technically and economically feasible scenarios that represent a best-case scenario for long-term climate stability in the long-term fully renewable energy supply by 2050 with the enormous benefits, batteries, electricals, electricals, electricals, electricals, electricals, electricals, electricaltes, electricaltes, electricaltes, electricaltes, electricaltes, electricalties, electricaltes, electricaltes, electricaltes installations, electricaltes, electricalties, electricalties, electricalties, electricalties, electricaltes, electricalties, electricity installations, electricalties, electricalties, electricalties, electricalties, electricalties, electricalties, electricalties, electricalties, electricalties, electricalties, electricalties, electricalties, electricalties. Batteries, and electricity devices for the calculation of the calculation. Power-to-X-economy.
Authors: Gabriel Lopez, Dominik Keiner and Christian Breyer
This article is part of a monthly column of Lut University.
Research into Lut University includes various analyzes with regard to strength, warmth, transport, desalination and negative CO2 Emission options. Power-to-X research is a core subject at the university, integrated into the focus areas of energy, air, water and company and society. Solar energy plays a key role in all research aspects.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are the author, and do not necessarily reflect it by PV -Magazine.
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