From PV Magazine 4/25
President Donald Trump did not waste time to impose import tariffs, one of his most important campaign blows. In his first few weeks in office, the president renewed the rates of section 232 for Staal and Aluminium, under the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. Trump also used 1977’s International Emergency Powers Act (IEPA) to impose a new rate of 20% from China, plus 25% rates. Albeit. Albeit.
Clean Energy Associates (CEA) do not expect the rates to have a significant impact on the solar or battery industry. However, behind the taxes, more powerful trade threats lurked.
The 232 -rates announced by Trump include ‘derived’ products, a definition that includes solar frames, aluminum frames and probably other items. Buying such products from domestic producers will not necessarily protect developers and engineering, purchasing and construction companies from the energy storage against cost effects. As documented by Reuters news agency, and confirmed by CEA interviews with balance of system providers, domestic steel producers increase prices in response to the rates.
IEEEPA taxes will increase prices for goods, including electrical transformers and shift gear, largely imported from Mexico. In the medium term, CEA expects the delivery of transformers for the United States to shift to other cheap locations. We expect that neither the 232 nor the rates of Ieya in itself PV system or solar module Bill of material prices will sufficiently increase to have a significant impact on the production of American or implementation.
For battery energy storage systems (BESS), the market impact will probably be even less important than for solar energy. Section 232 increases the costs of battery project housings, racks and containers. Stretching are the greatest care among those three items. However, since racks represent only about 6% of the total costs of container systems, we expect that the effects will be relatively small.
IDEEPA rates will have even less effect than section 232 levies on Bess prices, 20% rates on the Chinese BES will probably be absorbed by the suppliers. The two combined rates will approach domestic cell makers and integrators marginal, but will have little impact on the implementation of the battery.
Trump has promised to impose extra rates on cars and semiconductor materials. Although no report has been made of solar or batteries, there is always the possibility that they will be included in later proposals.
AD/CVD disruption
By far the greater danger to the market for solar and battery storage is not presidential rates, but the AD/CVD studies are currently underway to the US Department of Trade.
The imposition of preliminary tasks, under the AD/CVD case against Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, has already been correlated with highly reduced PV module -import volumes -threatening to run oversign to the American market in the American market. The tasks have also resulted in a geographical shift in supply chains. Cell production leaves countries that are subject to tasks in favor of Indonesia and Laos, and with promises of future factories in the middle also in the pipeline.
In the meantime, the current AD/CVD research into anode -active materials (AAMs) can considerably disrupt the American battery market. The proposers are looking for tasks from 828% to 921%. Although it is unlikely that companies that collaborate with the research will get tasks that are high, CEA’s analysis of AAM production inputs and prices for Chinese AAM suggest that the relevant data support the argument for Triple-Figure tasks.
Battery orodes and cells with Chinese AAM are included in the range of this case, and all tasks on batteries also apply to packs and container systems. That is why this means potentially high tasks on battery cells, packaging and container systems.
It is important to remember that tasks imposed under AD/CVD orders are not like other rates. AD/CVD tasks are applied retroactively, impossible to predict and change annually. As such, they create unique challenges for suppliers, importers and buyers and create market disruption that is much greater than the numerical value of the tasks.
Uflpa is expanding
One of the biggest threats for the American solar and battery markets comes from neither rates nor tasks. It is a law that specifically applies a legal prohibition on importing goods made with forced labor on products suspected of having input from the Chinese region of Xinjiang.
Since June 2022, $ 3 billion in “electronics” has been held under the UFLPA. Based on CEAs conversations with suppliers and buyers, we believe that PV modules represent the vast majority of those arrests.
In January 2025, the Forced Labor Enforcement Task Force (FLETF), which supervises the UFLPA strategy, added five Chinese companies involved in Ingot and Wafer -Production to the UFLPA entity list. That is the list of companies whose products cannot be imported, in whole or in part to the United States.
Earlier, only polysilicium and metallurgical quality silicon makers were located in Xinjiang to the entity list, based on accusations of forced labor on site. In the case of the Ingot and Wafer Makers, their addition to the entity list made no accusations of forced labor in their facilities. Instead, their recording on the list stemmed from their purchasing of polysilicon that may be associated with forced labor.
It is not difficult to see how the upstream moving can be expanded during the Trump government. The risk of more detention of equipment for clean energy and additives of entity list is in particular acute when considering statements from the past of the state of State Marco Rubio, who has a place on the FLETF in his new role.
As a Senator, Rubio repeatedly joined other members of the congress when insisting FLETF to expand the entity list and to take other actions to further limit the input that Xinjiang content could have.
“It is our statement that UFLPA implementation requires a robust entity list that can be a useful guide for importers and CBP [U.S. Customs and Border Protection] Operations, “Read a statement signed by Rubio and three other members of the Congress in April 2023.” Countless social organizations have collected data on many entities that are linked to the Xuar [Xinjiang Uyghur autonomous region] And forced labor that is currently not included in the list of Forced Labor Enforcement Task Force (FLETF). “
In June 2024, Rubio and four other members of the congress sent a letter to FLETF to make large Chinese battery makers Catl and Gotion on the entity list.
Composite risk
The existing and potential impact of American rates and tasks, and the threat of UFPLA promotion, are a significant risk for buyers, importers and suppliers in the solar and battery industry. That is without even considering the risk that the investment and production tax credits that the industries enjoy, an early sunset, new requirements or withdrawal can get.
Moreover, the uncertainty about tariff levels and the rapid pace of policy change ensures a challenging environment for investments in clean energy, in particular for capital -intensive projects such as factories that will last for years to bear fruit. Following policy changes at a detailed level is essential for every company that is considering making investments in the short term.
Ultimately, the risks that the solar and bess industry are confronted will take place and the clean energy industry will find a new balance. The timelines of different processes, including for the alignment of the budget, mean that it can take months or even more than a year before policy changes are completed. In the meantime, every industrial participant must look for trusted sources of information and analysis and follow them diligently.
About the author: Christian Roselund Leads policy research and communication about the Market Intelligence team of CEA with a focus on trade, supply chains and national policy. He has 15 years of experience in clean energy, including serving as a founder of editor of PV Magazine USA And as an editorial director at Non -Profit the Rocky Mountain Institute. He has written extensively about solar policy, production and technology.
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