Wood Mackenzie highlights a pioneering 5.2 GW solar-plus-storage project in the UAE capable of delivering 1 GW of continuous baseload power, signaling a potential shift in renewable energy deployment despite its high costs. The report also predicts strong global solar energy growth through 2030, including the rise of residential ‘balcony solar’ in the US and an increased share of solar energy in Asia Pacific and the US.
Wood Mackenzie said it that a massive solar-plus-storage project currently under construction in the UAE will “redefine baseload power.”
The prediction is one of three that Wood Mackenzie published as part of his “Global Solar Energy: Key Things to Look for in 2026” report.
The 5.2 GW solar plus 19 GWh battery energy storage project, under development by Masdar and Emirates Water and Electricity Company (EWEC), which broke ground in October, is the world’s first gigawatt-scale renewable project designed to deliver 1 GW of continuous, 24-hour baseload power.
Michelle Davis, global head of solar at Wood Mackenzie, said the project represents a structural shift in the development of hybrid projects in the region.
Davis noted that while the project is currently too expensive to replicate broadly, at approximately six times the cost of a new combined cycle gas-fired gas turbine power plant, successful project execution and sustained cost reductions could redefine baseload capability.
“Despite the challenging events of 2025, solar market fundamentals and demand will remain strong in 2026, especially as the global economy continues to electrify,” Davis concluded.
The report also predicts that solar energy will play an important role in meeting the expected growth in electricity demand over the next decade in various parts of the world.
According to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis, annual solar energy generation, including distributed solar, in the US is expected to increase by 232 GWh (65%) between 2026 and 2030. This will bring solar closer to gas, which makes up the majority of US electricity generation and is expected to grow by 340 GWh (or 21%) over the next four years.
In the Asia Pacific, solar made up 11% of the energy generation mix in 2025 and is expected to grow to 17% by 2030. Wood Mackenzie expects solar, wind and storage to make up a third of the region’s energy generation mix by the end of the decade, after being less than 10% in 2020. According to the analysis, new energy capacity in the region is predominantly focused on solar energy due to price competition.
Wood Mackenzie’s latest forecast for 2026 is that balcony solar, or plug-in solar, will gain a foothold in the US this year, while market penetration will continue in Europe.
The market research firm explains that there was no market for balcony solar panels in the US before early 2025. Utah last March became the first state to allow residential customers to use portable solar power generation devices that can produce up to 1.2 kW of power without the need for a utility interconnection agreement. Since then, more than a dozen states have introduced similar legislation.
Wood Mackenzie expects this number to continue to grow, but also warned that the main challenges lie in fragmented electricity standards, lower voltage in American homes and a higher share of single-family homes without balconies.
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