Wood Mackenzie says solar will account for 59% of new renewable energy sources between 2024 and 2033. China is expected to drive growth and account for half of new solar energy deployment over the projected period.
According to Wood Mackenzie’s latest forecast, solar developers are expected to install 3.8 TW (AC) of global capacity between 2024 and 2033.
The analysts predict that new wind and solar installations will reach a combined 5.4 TW, bringing the cumulative global total of the two technologies to 8 TW by 2033. Energy storage capacity, excluding pumped hydro, is also expected to grow by more than 600%. the same period, with almost 1 TW of new capacity coming online.
Luke Lewandowski, vice president of global renewable energy research at Wood Mackenzie, said the growth is expected despite inflation, grid constraints and permitting challenges.
“Global demand for renewable energy sources has reached unprecedented levels, driven by national-level policy objectives, technological innovation and energy security concerns,” he explained. “Energy storage is projected to have the most balanced geographic footprint, in part because of the important role it plays in making renewable energy available.”
If Wood Mackenzie’s predictions are correct, cumulative installed global solar capacity will almost quadruple between 2024 and 2033. Growth will be driven by China, which is expected to account for 50% of new capacity.
Juan Monge, principal analyst of distributed PV at Wood Mackenzie, said extremely low module prices intensified solar deployments in Europe and China last year and will continue to do so in the near term.
“Ultimately, maximizing solar PV and wind capacity over the next decade will depend on additional technological developments: from expanding grid infrastructure to driving flexibility solutions, transport and electrification of heating,” Monge said.
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Wood Mackenzie said the annual increase in solar installed will continue until 2026. At that point, the company predicts a two-year slowdown due to an expected lull in development activity, before the next round of planned tenders lead to a larger commitment will lead. Earlier this year it forecast strong but flat growth in annual solar deployment through 2032.
Wood Mackenzie said the global energy storage market is on track to reach 159 GW/358 GWh by the end of this year. It predicts 926 GW/2,789 GWh will be added by the end of 2033 – an increase of 633% from current levels. China is expected to remain the global leader, with expected annual capacity growth averaging 42 GW/120 GWh over the next decade.
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