Solar manufacturers are facing increasing cost pressures as silver paste now accounts for 30% of total cell production costs. OPIS analyst Hanwei Wu explains pv magazine that module manufacturers currently have limited ability to increase final panel prices, accelerating efforts to reduce silver use in all mainstream cell technologies.
Solar panel manufacturers have struggled to raise solar panel prices despite higher production costs following a recent surge in silver prices, which hit a record $83.62 per ounce on Dec. 28.
“It is challenging, if not impossible, to pass on the entire cost increase to end users,” said Hanwei Wu, editor-in-chief at OPIS. pv magazine. “Solar manufacturers have been concerned about rising silver prices since 2022, but a key difference this time is the speed of the increase. Silver has been on a near-continuous bull run since April of last year and is up more than 180% over the past year.”
Wu added that there is little relief from other input costs as aluminum and polysilicon prices in China have also risen, more than offsetting softer prices for components such as glass and resin.
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“Raising sales prices to accommodate rising production costs has been a struggle,” he said. “Our assessments show that FOB China TOPCon M10 cell prices have increased by just over 30% since mid-December 2025, largely in line with the increase in silver prices over that period. However, over the course of 2025, from trough to peak, cell prices only increased by about 60%, well below the 180% increase for silver.”
According to Wu, the module segment is doing even worse. “From trough to peak in 2025, FOB China TOPCon module prices have increased only about 15%, and only 7% since mid-December. There is clear pressure on manufacturers to increase cell and module prices, but the extent of cost pass-through is limited by downstream demand, overcapacity and policy uncertainty.”
Cell manufacturers appear to be the most exposed to the combined impact of rising wafer and silver prices. In a market where full cost pass-through is difficult, margin compression is already visible in the downstream segments, along with production constraints across the supply chain.
“In addition to record high silver prices and rising wafer costs, China has eliminated export tax credits for solar photovoltaic products,” Wu said. “Taken together, these factors create a rare bullish price mix over the past two to three years, even as the path to solving overcapacity in the PV industry remains unclear.”
It remains uncertain whether the silver price will repeat the magnitude of the increase in 2025. However, efforts to reduce the use of silver in modules have been underway for some time, and the recent price increase is likely to accelerate this trend.
“Silver has overtaken polysilicon as the largest cost component in modules, accounting for approximately 16% to 17% of total costs, while silver paste represents up to 30% of total cell costs,” said Wu. “It is therefore no surprise that manufacturers are pursuing silver reduction across all major cell technologies, although the technical paths differ. Aiko, Jinko and Longi have already launched or are planning to launch cells with lower silver content. If cost savings and performance targets are met, competitive pressure alone will drive broader adoption.”
According to CPIA data for 2025, silver consumption from heterojunction cells (HJT) has fallen to 75 mg per cell, a decline of 34.8% year-on-year and the lowest among mainstream n-type technologies. TOPCon stands at 86 mg per cell, a decrease of 21.1%, while back-contact (BC) technology remains the highest at 135 mg per cell.
“From the perspective of using silver, HJT leads to de-silvering in the short term through compatibility with silver-coated copper, while BC provides a long-term benefit through copper plating,” Wu said. “However, TOPCon is limited by its high-temperature process architecture, making it more vulnerable to copper oxidation. After two years of margin compression, the industry has cut back on R&D spending, with many manufacturers prioritizing survival over innovation. The current silver crisis could act as a catalyst that favors companies that invested early in alternative metallization.”
The rise in silver prices may represent an external commodity shock, but could also accelerate consolidation in the oversupplied PV industry and influence the choice of the next mainstream solar cell technology.
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