According to LCP Delta’s Power Market Outlook Report, 83% of Britain’s electricity generation will come from clean energy sources by 2030.
This is 12% less than the 95% figure the government is targeting in the Clean Power 2030 Action Plan.
The report also shows that while current plans will allow Britain to reach 83% clean energy by 2030, a further 28 GW of renewable infrastructure would be needed to reach the target. The purpose of the action plan.
Clean energy generation has increased, rising from 68% in 2020 to 74% by the end of 2025. Despite this, the 95% figure according to LCP Delta’s forecasts has not been achieved.
To close this gap, the consultancy modeled several decarbonization scenarios in its report. They noted that even if the nation followed the “most ambitious” Accelerated Build pathway set out by the government, the UK’s 95% target would not be met until 2032.
The report explains that a major factor holding back progress is the reliance on gas to deal with network constraints. Currently, 27 TWh of renewable energy will have to be rejected by 2030 because it cannot be transported to where it is needed. As a result, 16 TWh of gas will be generated instead to meet demand.
LCP Delta’s model showed that the implementation of measures from the Accelerated Build process made it possible to achieve 90% clean energy by 2030. This included implementing major network upgrades in East Anglia, improving existing infrastructure and incorporating reforms to balancing mechanisms.
This model also showed benefits at the consumer level. It indicated that customers would be protected from price shocks and see lower bills through this clean energy system. This adapted Accelerated Build reduced average annual household energy bills by around £40 in 2030, compared to 2026.
Furthermore, the model showed that transferring policy costs from older sustainable schemes to general tax and abolishing VAT had the potential to reduce the average customer bill by £64.
[Subheading] A way forward
While its aim was to highlight the shortcomings of Britain’s current clean energy trajectory, the report also praised its current successes. It was noted that the measures implemented between 2024 and 2026 have encouraged positive changes.
The report predicts that, as things stand, gas emissions will be reduced by 38% by 2030 compared to 2024, and renewable energy capacity will be almost doubled – reducing CO2 emissions by 36% compared to current levels. Moreover, there will be less gas hegemony, with gas determining the price only 50% of the time in 2030, instead of 85% as in 2025.
“While our analysis shows that Britain is unlikely to meet its 2030 clean energy target, the direction we are moving is clear: by the end of the decade the energy system will have undergone a profound transformation,” said Sam Hollister, Head of UK Market Strategy, LCP Delta.
“Renewable capacity will meet more than 70% of our energy needs in just a few years, freeing the country from volatile international gas markets and halving CO2 emissions from the energy sector compared to 2025.”
After assessing the gains and losses of the current clean energy trajectory, including new rebalancing for accelerated buildout, LCP Delta’s report suggested realistic 2030 targets.
Report contributors urged the government to accelerate work on beneficial policies such as increasing renewable energy deployment, working on grid connection delays and network updates, and implementing mitigation management measures.
“Britain is firmly on the path to an energy system dominated by clean generation… there are actions the government can take that go beyond current policies to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy,” Hollister concluded.
