In a new weekly update for pv magazineOPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides a brief overview of the major price trends in the global PV industry.
The Chinese Module Marker (CMM), the OPIS benchmark rating for TOPCon modules from China, was assessed at $0.100/W, down $0.005/W from week to week. Prices for mono PERC modules were estimated at $0.090/W, down $0.005/W from the previous week. The new record lows for both prices come as market activity remains subdued due to low demand, according to OPIS data.
Module makers have cut prices in an effort to secure new orders and maintain cash flow with tradable indications for TOPCon modules at a price of $0.10/W Free-on-Board (FOB) China.
Solar panels exported to Europe continue to face higher freight rates for business in the Red Sea. OPIS heard freight rates of approximately $0.0164-0.0175/W (approximately $6,000-$7,000/FEU) for shipments from Shanghai to Rotterdam. While this has impacted shipments, it offers module sellers an opportunity to reduce their inventories in Europe.
A market observer said that prices during Intersolar were unchanged and remained around $0.10/W FOB China (+/-0.3cts) and that despite the high installation season just starting, installation demand for Europe did not appear to be very strong this year, at least in utility-scale space.
Latin America continues to look weak as price competition in this market is described as “fierce” by one module seller. Prices in the Brazilian market are generally lower than in other markets because buyers are price sensitive. TOPCon prices to Brazil had fallen to $0.08-0.09/W FOB China, with prices on the low side offered by Tier2-3 module sellers, the module seller added.
One buyer noted that current US Delivered Duty Paid (DDP) TOPCon prices have risen to the low to mid range of $0.30/W. This pricing includes the 201 bifacial rates, but excludes the new anti-dumping/countervailing duties. With the exemption set to expire mid-week, another market source told OPIS that “all new deals would be subject to the Section 201 rates of 14.25% and prices likely towards the mid-$0.30s/W in 2024”.
Domestic Chinese demand remained weak amid increasing inventory pressure. Further price cuts were expected in the coming weeks as module sellers cleared inventories to generate cash flow. The majority of market participants surveyed by OPIS expected TOPCon prices to fall below CNY0.8/W or $0.099/W on an FOB China equivalent basis, which is the current production cost for integrated producers.
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According to the Silicon Industry of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the business rates of integrated module vendors remained between 60 and 80%. Estimates of module production capacity in June were 50 GW, down from the previously expected 52 GW and down 5 GW from May, the association said.
China exported 83.3 GW of modules in the January-April period, marking a 20% year-on-year increase, according to the latest data from China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. The total value of module shipments for the January-April period was $12.7 billion.
Looking ahead at China’s FOB market, broader bearish conditions prevent a near-term increase in module prices, although continued production cuts in July could provide some relief from supply pressures.
OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/NGL, coal, metals and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmentally friendly feedstocks. It acquired assets with pricing data from Singapore Solar Exchange in 2022 and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the author pv magazine.
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