The Chinese Module Marker (CMM), OPIS’ benchmark rating for TOPCon modules FOB China, remained stable this week at $0.113/W, with spot price indications ranging between $0.110/W and $0.117/W, according to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report published on June 30.
However, sentiment for longer-term deliveries weakened, with prices for freight falling sharply in the fourth quarter of 2026 and 2027 as expectations for second-half demand weakened and upstream cell and wafer prices continued to decline. China forward FOB prices for Q4 2026 freights fell 0.88% week on week to $0.113/W, while Q1 and Q3 2027 freights fell 0.87% to $0.114/W.
Several manufacturers told OPIS that many foreign buyers had already secured a significant portion of their purchasing needs before China’s April 1 withdrawal of export tax credits for solar products, limiting interest in short-term purchases.
A source at a top 10 Chinese module manufacturer said visibility for new distributed solar orders remains limited in the second half of the year and demand is expected to weaken.
The source added that the supply crunch for high-end high-yield products is also likely to ease in the coming months. While certain back-contact (BC) modules in Europe experienced temporary shortages during the first half of the year, additional supply is expected to enter the market in the second half of the year, putting downward pressure on prices. OPIS heard indicative offers for high-efficiency TOPCon and BC modules around the mid to high $0.110/W FOB China.
Against this backdrop, major Chinese manufacturers continue to accelerate their transition to BC technology. Several top vendors are evaluating BC manufacturing alongside their existing TOPCon platforms, although intellectual property considerations remain an important factor in commercialization strategies.
Reflecting this trend, a top 10 manufacturer recently announced plans to convert one of its production bases to BC technology by upgrading 6.3 GW TOPCon cell capacity, 1 GW PERC cell capacity and 3.5 GW module capacity without adding new production capacity. The project is scheduled for completion at the end of 2027.
The feedback collected by OPIS from participants at Intersolar Europe 2026 in Munich broadly reinforced these market expectations from a European market perspective.
Conference participants said European module inventories have normalized significantly after two years of oversupply. Distributors no longer carry six to 12 months of inventory, while purchasing strategies have shifted from delaying purchases in anticipation of lower prices to purchasing modules based on actual project requirements. The change in purchasing behavior points to a weaker outlook for export demand for Chinese modules.
OPIS also noted that BC technology is gaining wider acceptance in the European market, supported by its higher conversion efficiency, lower silver consumption and only a modest price premium over TOPCon products. An EU-based manufacturer told OPIS that Europe’s fragmented market structure continues to drive technological innovation, with more module innovations being showcased at Intersolar.
In addition to the market fundamentals, the overarching message at this year’s Intersolar was that the solar energy sector is entering a new phase in which storage, flexibility and market integration are becoming more important than simply adding PV capacity. Although global solar energy demand is expected to decline by 2026, Intersolar presenters cited battery energy storage systems (BESS), hybrid PV projects and grid flexibility as the sector’s key growth drivers.
According to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report released on June 30, imported TOPCon modules of 600W and above were assessed at €0.108/W DDP Europe, while EXW Europe prices for TOPCon modules of 450W and below remained unchanged at €0.111/W.
OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/NGL, coal, metals and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmentally friendly feedstocks. It acquired assets with pricing data from Singapore Solar Exchange in 2022 and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report.
