New data from the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) says there is no scenario in which Ireland will meet its solar deployment capacity of 8 GW by 2030. With existing measures, the reality would be more like 5 GW, the government-run group estimates.
Ireland is at risk of falling 2.9 GW short of its 2030 national solar deployment target of 8 GW. This is evident from a new one report published by the SEAI.
The group’s government-funded report National Energy Projections 2024 contains key findings from the latest national energy projections, which examine future energy consumption in Ireland under different scenarios.
It finds that even with additional measures in place to support renewable energy, the country will underperform in solar energy deployment. With existing measures in place, the authority estimates that Ireland’s solar energy deployment will be just under 5 GW by 2030. If current measures continue, the country is unlikely to reach 8 GW by 2040. The assumed best estimated trajectory under current measures is 2.2 GW in 2025 and 5.7 GW in 2030.
Even if additional measures are taken, it is unlikely that deployment capacity will come close to the 2030 targets. According to SEAI projections, this will be less than 5.5 GW. The 8 GW target may not be achieved until after 2036. The value of the additional measures comes from the best-case trajectory with additional solar PV roof capacity compared to the current measures. The SEAI estimates that additional measures would not have any impact on the expected 2.2 GW in 2030, but they could potentially see installed capacity rise to 6.5 GW by 2030 – still 1.5 GW below the agreed target of 8 GW.
The impact of delayed achievement of the targets is modeled for several key measures, including the deployment of solar, wind, district heating networks, retrofitting and renewable heating technology in buildings, and bioenergy. Solar deployment is the second highest category at risk of undercapacity, after offshore wind – which is at risk of undercapacity by 5 GW by 2030.
“It is clear that the sustainable energy policy package currently under development, and as set out in Ireland’s Climate Action Plans, is neither sufficient nor delivering results quickly enough to keep pace with the necessary target pathways,” the report said. It said industrial energy demand is a major pressure point, and if the country experiences the same energy demand from industry as it did between 2011 and 2022, it will need significant renewable energy contingency plans.
“Without a significant strengthening of existing policies and the addition of new policies and measures, including expanding incentives, improving information and applying regulations, we are unlikely to meet our national and EU obligations . It is critical that every effort is made to build the capacity of both the public and private sectors to deliver on what has been set out so far in the plans, and to address underlying issues that could further hinder progress can slow down.”
The agency called for tariffs on heat pumps and incentives for electric vehicles (EVs). It is argued that there are significant cultural barriers when it comes to decarbonising transport, especially as Ireland has high levels of private car ownership.
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