Trendforce says that solar module, cell and waffle prices will rise in the second quarter if China speeds up the installations prior to imminent legal changes. It notes that the prices are expected to fall in the third quarter as the question is reduced.
Coming changes to solar stimuli in China will stimulate demand in the short term and the tightening of the supply, according to the Taiwan-based consultancy trendforce.
Earlier this year, the Chinese government announced new regulations for solar and renewable energy that will eliminate fixed feed-in rates for solar installations from June.
Analysts expect the policy shift to activate an increase in installations, especially for distributed solar systems. Trendforce said that this short-term question peak will create a “moderate question peak” in March and April, a peak in the second quarter and pushes the prices higher in the solar-supply chain.
The company’s analysis showed that the installation bowl in distributed generation has considerably increased the demand of modules, so that distributors are in stock.
The average module prices are on CNY 0.70 ($ 0.096)/W, where top -class suppliers praise as CNY 0.73/W.
While the prices are well supported for the time being, Trendforce expects demand to fall sharply after the installation football ends. It projects “Intense competition” in the third quarter in the third quarter, will probably go back to CNY 0.70/W or lower module.
Rising module prices have also increased prices for solar cells, Trendforce said. The company said that the M10L-Tunneloxide-Passivated Contact (TOPcon) and G12 Topcon cell prices will rise by almost 1.7% month-over month in April, while G12R Topcon could see an increase of 6.67%.
Trendforce predicts that this upward trend will start in May to turn, with an intensifying decrease in the fall in competition in the third quarter.
The prices of solar wanders follow a similar process, with April prices that are expected to rise more than 3.5% monthly before they fall sharply in the third quarter as demand falls.
The prices of Polysilicon will also rise in the second quarter, with trendforce CNY 45/kg predicts. However, the company expects a significant contraction of demand in the third quarter as soon as the installation thrust is decreasing.
“Because electricity costs are around 30% of raw materials, producers are likely to increase production during the summer hydroelectric season to take advantage of cheaper electricity,” Trendforce said. “This may lead to oversupply and downward pressure on prices.”
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