In a new weekly update for pv magazineOPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides a brief overview of the major price trends in the global PV industry.
The Global Polysilicon Marker (GPM), the OPIS benchmark for polysilicon outside China, was valued this week at $21,130/kg, or $0.048/W, unchanged from the previous week.
The long-awaited preliminary findings in the anti-dumping duty (AD) investigation into cells and modules from four Southeastern countries, considered a critical factor determining global polysilicon sales, were announced by the US on November 29. AD rates range from 0% to 271.28%, varying by country and manufacturer, with most companies assigning specific rates that fall within the range of 50% to 90%.
Buyers and sellers in the global polysilicon market remain uncertain about their next steps amid the coming developments. Several major buyers are emphasizing the need to monitor market conditions before revising their cautious purchasing approach, indicating that the current sluggish state of the market is likely to continue.
Opportunities lie in the dynamics between module delivery to the US and the associated end users, said a buyer. While reduced imports and higher costs from four Southeast Asian countries could push up U.S. module prices, a key question is how much of this price increase U.S. solar developers can absorb, and to what extent it can offset 201, CVD and AD rates compensate.
Amid ongoing uncertainty, global polysilicon vendors have emphasized the importance of prioritizing extensive customer visits to gain first-hand insight into their current circumstances and future plans.
Nevertheless, the upcoming addition of new cell manufacturing capabilities in countries such as Laos, Indonesia, Oman, India and the US could create a path for Southeast Asian wafers in the coming year, thereby contributing to a brighter outlook for global polysilicon.
China Mono Grade, OPIS’ assessment of mono-grade polysilicon prices in the country, remained stable this week at CNY33 ($4.55)/kg, or CNY0.074/W. China Mono Premium, OPIS’s price assessment for mono-grade polysilicon used for the production of N-type ingots, also remained stable at CNY 39.375/kg, or CNY 0.089/W, unchanged from the previous week.
While polysilicon transaction prices have remained stable this week, reports point to the emergence of exceptionally low offers. Some Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers, facing outstanding debts to raw material suppliers, are reportedly using polysilicon as payback, causing the raw material suppliers to sell the polysilicon received at 5% to 10% below regular rates.
Chinese polysilicon manufacturers have further cut production, with total production for December expected to fall below 90,000 tonnes, down significantly from around 130,000 tonnes in November. Moreover, a leading manufacturer with a production capacity of 65,000 tons in the first half of 2024 is expected to produce only about 20,000 tons in December, which represents an operating rate of less than 50%.
Insiders expect polysilicon prices to fall further in December, driven by year-end discounts that manufacturers typically offer to boost cash flow, especially this year due to the significant downturn and persistent losses. These discounts help cover year-end financial obligations such as bank interest, supplier payments and employee benefits.
OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/NGL, coal, metals and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmentally friendly feedstocks. It acquired price data assets from Singapore Solar Exchange in 2022 and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the author pv magazine.
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