The Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) says new federal permitting, taxing and subsidy policies mean more than 13,000 MW of planned solar and battery capacity in Texas are at risk of not coming online in 2026, while much larger volumes will be exposed in 2027.
Federal policies focused on renewable energy are causing catastrophic damage to development in Texas, the nation’s largest state for solar and energy storage, SEIA said.
SEIA has released an analysis showing that new federal policies focused on renewable energy seriously jeopardize a significant majority of Texas’ planned solar and battery storage capacity. The data shows that up to two-thirds of the state’s future clean energy portfolio could be on hold indefinitely due to a combination of regulatory and financial headwinds.
Key factors cited for this development risk include the administrative delay of federal permitting processes, the rollback of critical investment tax credits, and the cancellation of the $7 billion Solar for All grant program. Solar has been hit by political attacks, including the One big, beautiful bill And executive and agency actions aimed at combating the development of solar energy. After years of growth, Wood Mackenzie predicts that solar installations may grow decrease by 1% annually until 2035.
This policy environment creates profound uncertainty for developers and investors operating within the jurisdiction of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).
The consequences are quantified for both the short and medium term. SEIA’s analysis predicts that more than 13,000 MW of planned solar and co-located battery capacity will likely not come online in 2026, representing half of all planned clean energy projects in the state for that period.
The capacity at risk increases significantly for projects planned for 2027, with the share rising to over 22,500 MW from the planned 26,000 MW. A total of 165 individual projects in Texas have been identified as being at significant development risk.
The challenge is systemic and national. According to SEIA’s findings, more than 70 GW of solar and 40 GW of battery projects across the U.S. pipeline have not received all necessary federal, state and local permits. This substantial capacity is in danger of slowing down as a result of the new administrative priority for fossil fuels.
SEIA’s report tracks planned capacity and what is at risk per state dashboard here.
The potential loss of this grid-strengthening capacity in Texas is expected to impose direct costs on consumers. The Texas Energy Buyers Alliance previously reported that blocking the future deployment of renewable energy and storage would result in an estimated $115 billion in higher wholesale prices for Texans over the next fifteen years.
The president of SEIA stated that these “political attacks on solar and storage will jeopardize half of all power coming onto the grid this decade,” directly impacting grid resilience and economic competitiveness as electricity demand, especially from data centers, continues to rapidly increase.
Solar energy and storage projects developed on federal land are now facing a “final review” by the office of Trump-appointed Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, leaving many “in the dark,” according to SEIA.
“And this extends well beyond projects on public lands,” SEIA said. “Many solar and storage projects located wholly or partially on private property are now mired in a host of federal assessments.”
SEIA said federal obstruction erodes private property rights and local decision-making, drawing Washington bureaucrats into projects that landowners and communities want to host. It poses a risk to landowners, farmers, ranchers and private investors that even if your project complies with regulations, the federal government can still pull the plug, according to SEIA.
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